CMHC Forecasts 5% Real Estate Market Correction – Recession By End Of 2022

CMHC is forecasting that in a high interest rate scenario, Canadian housing prices could fall by as much as 5%, and the economy could head into a technical recession by the end of 2022.

BNN Blomberg –
CMHC Housing Observer –

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  1. I do not to much stalk in CMHC, they were 70% off on there call for housing market 18months ago, and CMHC stated a 20% reduction on housing prices, but housing prices went up first 30%, then an additional 20% year over year, so 70% causes me to not trust CMHC anymore.

  2. The one thing that you didn’t mention because your analysis was focused on CMHC was unemployment rate. Unemployment has the highest impact on real estate prices. With record low unemployment in many areas of Canada some minor correction in house prices will occur however not a drastic drop. A 10% drop is what many analysts are expecting in the next four quarters. For those who are waiting for a market crash, sorry to disappoint it’s not going to happen unless we see a spike of 3-4%. Focus on unemployment rates if you want to see drastic price drops.

  3. LOL. 5%? Sure. GL with that. I'm seeing house prices being dropped by 100-200k in the last couple weeks in many areas of the GTA. High park, downtown, Eglinton and Yonge. And this is just the start. CMHC is full of it.

    People pulling their houses off the market will just watch as the prices drop and get caught.

    The prices are high because of FOMO created by flippers and investors not endusers and these players are about to take it on the chin. GL but I wouldn't touch this market with a 10 ft pole. Developers will also eventually adjust. Sure short term they will pause but they aren't going to sit around for 1 or 2 yrs doing nothing.

  4. No one can predict anything. Not CMHC, not the government, not developers, not Any economist, not the BOC, not any of the 5 banks. I’m almost tired of all these videos however Nolan is one of my favourite professionals! When the market is booming these videos are totally different.

    I have been a home owner for 20 years. All I know is in 2002 when I bought my first home for 118K… to the other homes I’ve held and the home I live in now – prices have never gone backwards. It will never ever be that way. Never!

    Canada – especially Vancouver and Toronto- people want to live here.

    Who has a crystal ball? Tell me who? If you do message me please!

  5. CMHC forecasts have literally been wrong for at least the past 5 years.
    There are more delistings because sellers keep changing the price.
    With 2-3 more rate hikes coming, there is still going to be a drop in prices.
    Rate hikes take 6-9 months to be felt. We're not going to reach the bottom for another year at least.

  6. Great content, Money is worthless until you put it to work…. I made my 1st million invested into Stock market. Making money is the plan and with Crypto/stock Investment your plans can be fulfilled.

  7. Hmm from these reports it seems BoC wants to keep interest rates to the current levels, so wouldn't it have been wiser for folks to lock in their mortgage rates few months ago back when fixed was below 4%? You kept advocating for variable rate but it's above 4% now and doesn't seem like it will come down in next 5 years or so

  8. This is what you get when politicians like Christy Freeland and Justin Trudea are running the country. It will get much worse before it gets better… atleast until 2026.

  9. I’m kicking myself. I bought at the beginning of 2021 under asking and decided to go with variable. I was frothing at the mouth for the 1.45 variable instead of going with 2.47. But I’m a little scared with my current rate sitting at 3.75. I guess hindsight is 20/20.

    I can still pay it without issue but the extra 200 biweekly is twisting a knife in me. How high would these variable mortgages likely continue to climb?

  10. The Covid Boom March 2020 – 2022 RIP. It was caused by free Bank of Canada money. The Boom got sick with the first 1/4% interest rate rise, and died after it had gone up 1.75%. This mess is on the Bank of Canada. Get Mortgages back to 6% for Fixed mortgages, and 5% for variable, then just leave the market alone for 5 years.

  11. If your concerned about real estate don’t be the macro has already sailed. Be happy with your home as it’s not an asset it’s a liability and has always been that. Next NEVER take guidance or advice from industry insiders, influencers, or the industry as a whole as they have a biased vested interest.

  12. Every homeowner will agree with the 5%. Funny thing is, it’s already dropped past that. No one’s talking about household debt at its highest level ever. Oh we will be fine. Really? This story is not over yet.Buckle up naïvers, we are going to see if 30+% decline over the next 6 months. Mark this post.

  13. BriIliant analysis of the different things to watch for on the different time frames. Good to see everyone feels the same way when they lose money, everyone thinks they could do this or that with that money which is as good as gone, instead people refuse to seek help from professionals. Edward Joseph James set to be different and unique, I made about $180k already from his day tradng, all i did was to copy his daily signals, am done having heart breaks hodling and trading myself lol…

  14. CMHC, BOC, and Governments are – ACTION to slow. If the housing prices are increasing 200% to 500%, then we want the Governments to increase our salary/pay cheques to same as 500% too. Re-set = WAKE UP.

  15. You seem like the type too pump the market while dumping your own realistate. Yeah let's listen too cmhc which was just recently predicting price increases. Pull your head out of your ass and smell the coffee. Gravy train is dead brother. Please people don't fall for this man's tricks. What a joke ! 5% hahaha. Why is months of inventory going up so much noly?

  16. If recession is factored in, they should also factor job losses due to recession, which could continue to put downward pressure on prices into 2023 and may be 2024. Further, when CMHC talks about 5% correction, I am not sure if they are talking about correction from peak or the average price last year. If its from peak, then the index peice is already down more than 5% according to the latest report by CREA.

  17. I love how this economy and society in canada doesnt want to supply an affordable detached home to anyone young anymore. This is akin to there only being one mcdonalds in the world so your big mac costs 45$ instead of 10$ lol
    You probably need to stop saying its a bad thing if the average value of a house drops. People on variable mortgages made their own mistakes- we shouldn’t be organizing things to keep forcing prices to go up and ONLY up

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